The Global Risk and Resilience Model and Index (GIRI), a groundbreaking, fully probabilistic risk model encompassing global infrastructure sectors. Currently, GIRI addresses six natural hazards: earthquakes, tsunami, landslides, floods, tropical cyclones, and droughts, the last three incorporating climate change-induced modifications, providing hydrometeorological risk metrics related to various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios in the future. GIRI also extends its coverage to nine infrastructure sectors: power, highways, railways, transportation, water and wastewater, communications, oil and gas, education, health, and housing.
GIRI boasts the following key attributes:
1. Flexibility and Scalability: Serving as both a metric and modeling framework, GIRI assesses disaster risk in infrastructure systems supporting socio-economic activities. This adaptability allows for potential expansion to include other hazards and sectors;
2. Probabilistic Approach: GIRI employs a fully probabilistic methodology, providing probabilistic metrics and integrating climate change through imprecise probability estimates.
3. Incorporation of Socio-Economic Context: Acknowledging the complexity of disaster risk, the GIRI Index integrates socio-economic context variables that exacerbate risk, yielding insights into a country's resilience performance;
4. Non-Stationarity: Thanks to the inclusion of climate change-induced modifications
This will serve as a valuable tool for governments in strategic planning and decision-making, facilitating the articulation of a clear economic and financial rationale for investing in resilience.